Industry experts have predicted the future trend of China’s foundry industry from many aspects. Grasping these development trends is one of the important foundations of China’s foundry industry development strategy.
1. Casting output
The development prospect of China’s total casting output in the near future, such as 2010, can be inferred from two aspects.
1)Driving factors
In 2003, the per capita consumption of castings in China was about 15 kg, while that in developed countries was 45-55 kg, so the domestic demand was huge. With the all-round development of the national economy, the rapid growth of the total output of castings in the next few years can be expected; The vigorous development of urban construction, real estate industry and expressway will stimulate the rapid development of casting industry, especially casting pipe industry; Due to the contraction of the foundry industry in developed countries, the increase of castings purchased in China and the increase of foreign investment in foundries in China will greatly increase the export volume of Chinese castings.
2)Constraints
With the increasingly strict national labor and environmental protection regulations, the unrewarded investment and daily maintenance expenses paid by the foundry will increase, and the profit margin will decrease, which will reduce the enthusiasm of business owners for the investment of the foundry; With the gradual increase of people’s economic income, the advantage of low salary in casting cost will be gradually lost, affecting export competitiveness.
In the comparison of the two factors, the driving factors are absolutely dominant. Therefore, as long as there is no accident, it is possible to estimate that the total output of castings in China will reach about 30,00,00 tons in 2010. At the same time, the proportion of nodular cast iron and light alloy castings in the total output of castings will be greatly improved.
2. Casting quality
In terms of casting quality, the prospect will not be as optimistic as production. The number and output of world-class castings will increase, but the average level of castings and casting raw and auxiliary materials in China will not improve soon. The main reason is that the average comprehensive quality of employees in the national foundry industry can not be improved quickly under the current conditions. The development of foundry science and technology research will also be greatly affected.
3. Production specialization
China’s foundry industry has just changed to a market economy, and the commercialization of casting trade has developed greatly. A large number of casting workshops of original all-round factories have been transformed into independent legal person enterprises to produce commercial castings, which is a big step towards a market economy. However, most factories still follow the previous casting production based on production conditions, only producing large and small castings together, but did not achieve professional production in the real sense. Specialization is the only way for single piece and small batch production to move towards mechanization and automation. The experience of advanced industrial countries has proved this, and the practice of many enterprises in our country has also proved this.
There is no doubt that after the specialization of production, there will be the conditions for the adoption of automatic lines, which will not only ensure the improvement of quality and stability, but also increase the output per unit area, and the factory can scale up and get orders. It can be expected that a large number of specialized production plants with excellent quality and low cost will appear in the future.
4. Labor protection and environmental protection
With the economic development and social progress, the labor protection and environmental protection of foundry enterprises will be enforced, and the sustainable development of foundry industry will be put on the agenda. More and more attention will be paid to the certification of 15014000 and OHSA 18000. Conforming to the trend of industrial sustainable development is the requirement of maintaining the sustainable development of enterprises.
5. Casting outlet
China’s casting export is faced with two characteristics: first, due to environmental protection and labor and other reasons, local casting production shrank and imports increased in the United States and the European community. Second, in addition to Mexico and Brazil, the export momentum of the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania in Eastern Europe and India and Thailand in Asia has increased sharply recently, and the quality and reputation have improved rapidly.
Therefore, although developing international trade faces good opportunities, it also faces more and more fierce competition. There are two important ways for China’s foundry enterprises to expand exports: first, the rapid improvement of quality, especially the improvement of quality consistency; The second is to ensure the delivery date.